Super phones will replace.....

In the next 5 years or so, super phones will begin to compete with....

Laptops

Desktops

Game consoles

DVD players

I would say replace, but there will always be a market for stand alone systems.

Imagine this.   In 2015 the NVIDIA Tegra Stark processor series will be 75 times faster than todays dual core processors.   What do you do with that much processing power?   The answer is, everything...

I am only one person, and I can only do one or two things at a time.   Why do I need 4 different devices with processors in my house(just for fun, i actually have around 15)?   If I can only use one processor at a time, I should only need one processor.  I cant watch a movie and play a video game at the same time for example (work with me here).

When i want to use a laptop, I set my phone next to it (an advanced version of the Motorola webtop) and use the keyboard, screen, and mouse in a "shell" laptop.  All processing is done on the phone and it is done wirelessly.   Since these shells have no CPU, there is no need to upgrade it every year or two.  You only upgrade your phones.

I'm done with my laptop and want to play a video game, say COD 10.   My phone wirelessly connects to my TV, a controller connects via Bluetooth to the phone and we're gaming.

I'm done gaming and want to watch a movie.   The movie streams from my Android phone to my Google TV box and we can watch Shrek 8.   With enough CPU power you can use your laptop at the same time.

Going off to work the next day, I take my phone with me.   At work, i set it in a cradle, and it wirelessly connects to my keyboard, mouse and monitor.   Done at work, take it home and do the same thing.

All of this technology already exists, but it is in its infancy.  

WiGig (wireless 7 gigabyte/second data transfer)

Motorola webtop (very primitive, but proof of concept)

Asus Padphone (link)

Apple Airplay

So how do Apple and Google play into this?   Apple will have a closed system, so your iPhone X will only work with Apple products, purchased from the Apple store.  This includes Apple laptop shells, Apple TV, and iTunes media.  iTunes COD 10 will be 25% more expensive than Android COD 10, because apple currently takes a 30% share of app sales while android takes 5%  You can see this economy in action by comparing iPhone app prices to Android app prices.

Meanwhile, Samsung, HTC, and Motorola will have standardized everything, and it will all be compatible with each others hardware.   You can have a Samsung laptop and a Motorola Google TV set top box.  It will all work with your HTC phone.

Where does Microsoft fit in?   They are in the BEST position to do this.   Your Windows Mobile phone will have Microsoft X installed on it.   Microsoft already has all the software (i.e. Autocad) games (i.e. Call of duty) compatible with one platform.   Microsoft X will be backwards compatible with all games and software made previously.  When connected to your webtop, Microsoft X looks like windows does today, and runs all the programs you use today.   When connected to your TV, it runs any xbox, xbox360 or xbox 720 game ever made.